Asymptomatic test market forecast- Take Australia as an example.

As an analyst and go-to-market strategist in the health care industry responsible for qPCR and Assay products, COVID product is our base currently. However, as the vaccination, healthy protocols, and treatments mature, we face a post-covid age challenge. Asymptomatic testing is getting more and more critical in the post-covid age. I want to introduce my point of view of making a forecast on the Asumtomatic market and take Australia as my example.

Start with the asymptomatic application field; I split the topic into four key areas.

1. Travel

2. Entertainment

3. School

4. Work

I also want to highlight currently, for pooling solution in Australia, the test number against reaction number is 5:1, meaning to say 5 test samples in 1 reaction. The assumption here is that for each test, it is only for asymptomatic or for diagnostic purposes.

Travel

Overseas arrivals (‘000)
Overseas departures (‘000)

Take Aug-20 to Jul-21 as a full-year assumption as it is like a rolling concept. Now we have a wild population of annual arrivals of 553,000 and yearly departures of 709,000. The total is 1,262,000. As the pooling methodology, the total assay needed is 252,400 reactions. The above estimation is relatively conservative because the travel population has been dropped significantly since the outbreak. If you consider a bold calculation, you can use the data before COVID.

Entertainment

School

Student enrolment in 2020

Assume each student will need a test once in two weeks. There are around four million students enrolled, meaning that 4,000,000 times 26 divided by 5 (pooling )equals 20,800,000 reactions per year is needed. You can adjust the number by timing a percentage that you think is better to reflect the reality you know.

Work

Conclusion

(1)To partner with distributors such as laboratories, hospitals, and teacher universities to expand the capacity and networks.

(2) To penetrate governments and guilds for more product visibilities and sample trying. We need to find a pilot as our success story.

The critical success factor is that we have to reduce the complexities and efforts for our end users when they are taking the tests, and our product and protocols have to save the efforts for organizations.

A business analyst who is familiar with the APAC market and stays with 8-year experience in data analytics, project management, and operations management.